Thursday, March 27, 2008

The Clinton in your review mirror may not be as close as she appears

Three reasons why Clinton's lead in super delegates may disappear BEFORE the PA primary:

1) Barak's delegate lead is LARGER than it appears. Clinton leads by about 35 Super delegates. Factor ‘leaning’ Super delegates who will vote for the candidate leading in pledged delegates, her lead is much narrower. Nancy Pelosi, Christine Pelosi, David Parker, Roy Romer, Maria Cantwell and Donna Brazile have expressed the view that the leader in pledged delegates at the end of the primaries should receive be the nominee. Applying Super delegates leaning this way would cut Clinton’s lead to under 30.

2) The Richardson endorsement is more devastating than reported. The HC campaign tried to downplay the affect on future contests; they ignore the serious problem this presents with Super delegates. Numerous uncommitted Latino Super delegates will be swayed by his endorsement. For example, DNC member Edward Espinoza of CA was a Richardson supporter who is uncommitted. There are numerous uncommitted Latino Super delegates in Texas & California. Richardson's involvement in Obama’s campaign might add 10+ uncommitted Super delegates. Additionally, Richardson might sway 5-10 Clinton Latino Super delegates to switch to BO. Richardson could cut Clinton's SD lead by 10+ delegates. Combined with #1 above, Clinton's lead in Super delegates might drop to single digits.

3) With 4 weeks until PA, the media is missing the most important political event before then... the California convention this weekend. Both HC and BO have been invited to participate. The obvious focus will be on uncommitted Super delegates in CA. Clinton must hold current Super delegates & hope for no additional Obama endorsements. If Obama adds uncommitted Super delegates in CA, then it's possible that going into PA Obama draws even or takes the lead in Super delegates. Going into PA, he could have an insurmountable 170-175 delegate lead, energizing his base in PA and narrowing her predicted margin of victory. If she picks up 20 delegates in PA, Obama might still lead by 150 delegates. If there's no resolution to MI and FL, or if there's a compromise that leaves Clinton well behind in pledged delegates, it's all over after PA.